Lubbock F5 Tornado
May 11, 1970
Jonathan D.
Finch
The famous F5 Lubbock
tornado occurred in a synoptically quiecient weather pattern. The flow at
mid and upper levels was
fairly light. This tornado occurred on the extreme
SE edge of the westerlies--well out ahead of any mid level cooling or
forcing
associated with the polar
jet. A weak subtropical jet was noted across northern Mexico into the Gulf
of Mexico. A strong
shortwave trough was exiting the central Rockies
into the northern Rockies and northern plains during the day. A
nearly
stationary front was draped from Iowa into central
Kansas and then into Colorado. There was no significant shortwave
trough approaching west Texas.
500mb heights were on the rise througout the region from 12
UTC May 11 to 00 UTC May
12.
This was partly due to the
exiting shortwave trough as well as to afternoon elevated heating.
The 500mb winds at ELP and
ABQ at 00z might lead one to
believe that a shortwave trough was approaching. The 500mb wind
was backed at ABQ.
But
the veered wind(270 degrees) at ELP right at
500mb may have been an error since the wind direction above and below
this
level at 600, 550, and 450mb
was from 240 to 250 degrees instead of 270 degrees. In fact,
the 00 UTC
400mb chart does
not show any well defined
shortwave trough. The AMA and MAF soundings
at 12 UTC and 00 UTC show steepening low
level lapse rates due
to diurnal heating. The west Texas region was located near
the middle of large 700mb warm
plume. Of
course this is to be
expected since we are dealing with a dryline, with no surface
fronts near west Texas. The bottom line is
that if there was an approaching
shortwave trough then it was fairly weak. This dryline retreated after
4 pm which is rather early
in the afternoon and
possibly indicative of an approaching shortwave trough. Typical
dryline retreats occur after 5 or 6 pm.
I am sure that one could claim
the existence of a shortwave trough in the southern Rockies/Plains.
Sometimes it seems that
every thunderstorm that pops up is blamed on a
shortwave trough. This is of course absurd as mesoscale forcing is
several
orders of magnitude larger than
synoptic scale forcing. Mesoscale and smaller dryline features
and terrain features are often
key in west Texas storm
initiation in the absence of strong or even weak synoptic scale
forcing.
At 22 UTC,
the southwestern end of the dryline was retreating to the northwest.
Surface dewpoints west of the dryline near
Lubbock were in the upper 30s and
lower 40sF. Surface dewpoints east of the dryline were in the upper 50s
to mid 60sF
depending on elevation. There
could have been more than 1 convergence line or dryline across west
Texas, but we will never
know since surface observations
have been traditionally tied to aviation in this country and have not
been positioned according to
meteorological need.
The dryline continued to retreat after 22 UTC
and was located in the vicinity of Lubbock by 00 UTC.
By 02 UTC
the dryline
extended from just east of Hobbs
to west of Reese AFB to just south of GAG. Due to the lack of surface
data and since the
low levels were altered
dramatically by ongoing convection in the Lubbock area, it is very
difficult to assess the instability.
Nevertheless, the 02 UTC
observations from LBB and REE showed plenty of moisture with lower 60s
F surface dewpoints.
Instability undoutbedly varied
tremendously across the Lubbock region due to small scale convective
effects. Thunderstorms
were ongoing in the Lubbock area
from 630 pm through the evening. While the storm scale and mesoscale
effects are not known,
these effects could have turned
an ordinary looking severe weather day into a violent tornado
situation. I can make a rough estimate
of surface based instability at
01 and 02 UTC based on the surface data at LBB and surrounding RAOBS.
At 01 UTC the T/TD
were 86F/56F at 897mb while at 02
UTC they were 71F/63F. Actually these observations are almost identical
in terms of
theta-e. Surface based cape
was around 3000 j/kg. Of course some prefer to use a mean layer CAPE
value. But, I am not a
huge fan of this. The reason why
I am not a fan is simple. How do we know what the vertical distribution
of moisture is like
given the wide spacing of
radiosonde stations? The answer is that we do not know. If we do
not know, then why use it?
For convection that is ingesting
low air at the lowest levels(such as supercell storms), I think that
surface based cape is a
decent proxy of instability.
Also, low level moisture tends to "pool" and be locally deeper in
convergent areas near thunderstorm
updrafts.
A timeline of the event can be found here.