Jonathan D. Finch
Elevated Mixed Layer
Special Cases for the United States
Bengal Tornadoes--background information
Meteorological Charts for Historical Tornado Cases for Bengal
Latitudinal Comparison of the Geostrophic Wind Approximation
Assessing Instability on the Front Range Without Upper Air Data
Potential Temperature and Mixing Ratio--Contributions to CAPE on Elevated Terrain
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Forecasts will normally
be updated between 3 UTC and 6 UTC(0900-1200 BST) since surface based convective
is generally between 9 and 11 UTC. These are updated as needed through initiation time. In particularly active periods
I may update several times per day. If violent tornadoes are expected, I will issue tornado watch boxes just before events
Day 1 April
14 : high
risk of high-end severe storms
Day 2 April 15: moderate risk of high-end severe storms
0820 UTC-- outflow
boundary remains in tact across northern Bangladesh. East-west trough
is obvious and is located from
between Ishudi and Bogra--wnw to south of Patna. Dryline was also taking shape across far east India. Storms should
develop over the next 2 hours.
9 - a strong storm cluster moved southeast across central and
southern Bangladesh Friday night, killing 6 people.
April 13 - severe storms injure 6 people tuesday evening
The best internet site for quality model information
for Bengal is Plymouth
State Weather Center. The most valuable
model fields include 500mb height/winds/vorticity, 300mb winds and sea level pressure/precip. The positioning of the
high-level jet is one of the most important predictors of severe storms in Bengal. These fields are available for the
UKMET-global, ECMWF-global, AVN-nh, AVN-global, and MRF-nh. Of course the avn and mrf are now called the GFS.
Meteorologist Rob Stokes
has just arrived in the Bengal region today(April 8). He will be laying
the groundwork for
future, pioneering storm chasing! He knows that the surface visibility is terrible there(due in part to millions of people
cooking outside), and is well aware of the many challenges. He is considering airborne chasing to get above the wretched
haze layer. Just found out that Rob is not in Bangladesh yet. He is still in Thailand trying to get a visa. Perhaps he will
be in Bangladesh by Tuesday.
Unfortunately the upper air data over the Indian
subcontinent is very poor quality. The best quality site is Calcutta. Here
an example of how bad the data is. This often makes analysis very dificult.