Day 1 - Day 2 Outlooks for 4/17-4/18

Date: 4/17/03 0315 UTC

Day 1: Moderate risk of severe storms(see graphic for details)

Day 2: No risk outlook

The models continue to underforecast the strength of the flow at all levels across the Indian region. The UKMET has initialized the best by far over the past few weeks and seems to be the best model overall with the obstacle flow around the plateau. The 00Z raobs continue to show 40-45kt flow at 500mb and 35 to 45kt flow at 700mb across central and northern BD. In addition, the 200mb temps continue to be very cold(around -55 to -58C) with windspeeds around 80kts. The shear will be adequate for supercell storms with very large hail and possibly tornadoes, especially across the moderate risk area. The flow and airmass recovery for day 2 is in question so no risk will be issued.