Estimating Instability While Storm Chasing
Jonathan D. Finch

Work in progress--use with caution


        I have been calculating instability while storm chasing for years. While the models do fairly well at predicting upper-level
        temperatures, they tend to do poorly at low-levels where theta-e changes rapidly in time and space. While 500mb temps change
        very slowly(except with upper level cold pools), low level temperatures and dewpoints change rapidly and vary tremendously
        on the mesoscale. So, a good way to stay abreast on the amount of instability in your target area is to actually measure the low
        level temperature and dewpoint, and then look at morning upper air data, model initializations and 6-12 hr fcsts valid at 18Z to
        approximate the 500mb temp, and then just find the lifted index on a skew-t log P diagram. Yes, I know its easier just to use
        some objective analysis scheme provided on the internet, but how accurate are these? Certainly not very accurate in the data
        sparse areas of the western high plains. The models tend to fail miserably on the western high plains and dramatically underestimate
        instability. It is fun to monitor the cool side of an outflow boundary, warm front, or any area where moisture is pooling, since
        surface observations often are non-existent. Of course you have to know the elevation. I have provided elevation maps to help
        in this process. Of course, this is easy for those with GPS. On this page I will provide tables for 500mb temps between -6 and
        -20C. Some of the values listed below are inaccurate and need to be tweaked, so use with caution.

    500mb temp = -6C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/TD in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie   7240 77/52   73/53   69/56   65/58 81/55   78/57   74/59   69/60 83/57   79/58   75/60   71/62 X X
Cheyenne  6140 80/55  76/57    72/59   69/60 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/63 86/60   81/61   77/63   73/65 X
Akron   4700 84/58   80/60   77/61   73/63 88/61   84/63   80/65   76/67 90/63   84/64   81/66   77/68
Goodland  3700 86/61   82/63   79/64   74/66 9/64    86/66   82/68    78/70 91/65   86/67   83/68   77/71
Gage   2220 89/63  85/65    81/67   77/69 93/66   89/68   85/70   81/72 94/68   89/70   86/72   80/74
Wichita   1340 93/66  88/68   84/70   81/71 95/69   91/71   87/73   83/74 97/70   92/72   88/74   82/76
Dallas   500 94/68   89/70   85/72   81/73 96/71   92/72   88/74   84/76 98/72   93/74   89/76   84/77

    500mb temp = -8C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/TD in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie  7240 75/49    71/51  67/54   63/55 77/52   73/53   69/56   65/58 81/55   78/57   74/59   71/62 83/57   79/58   75/60   71/62 X
Cheyenne 6140 78/53    74/54  70/56   66/58 80/55   76/57   72/59   69/60 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/63 86/60   81/61   77/63   73/65
Akron  4700 82/56    78/57   75/59  70/61 84/58   80/60   77/61   73/63 88/61   84/63   80/65   76/67 90/63   84/64   81/66   77/68
Goodland  3700 84/59    80/60  76/62   72/64 86/61   82/63   79/64   74/66 89/64   86/66   82/68   78/70 91/65   86/67   83/68   77/71
Gage  2220 87/61    83/63  79/65   75/67 89/63   85/65   81/67   77/69 93/66   89/68   85/70   81/72 94/68   89/70   86/72   80/74
Wichita 1340 91/64   86/66   82/68   78/69 93/66  88/68   84/70   80/71 95/69   91/71   87/73   83/74 97/70   92/72   88/74   82/76
Dallas  500 92/66   87/68   83/70   78/72 94/68   89/70   85/72   81/73 96/71   92/72   88/74   84/76 98/72   93/74   89/76   84/77

    500mb temp = -10C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/TD in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie   7240 73/46  69/49   65/50   61/53 75/48   71/51   67/53   63/55 78/51   73/53   69/55   65/57 80/53   76/55  72/57    68/59 83/57   79/58   75/60   71/62
Cheyenne   6140 76/49  72/52   68/54   64/56 78/52   74/54   70/56   66/58 80/54   76/56   72/58   68/60 82/56   78/58  74/60    71/62 86/60   81/61   77/63   73/65
Akron   4700 80/53  76/55   72/57   68/59 82/55   78/57   75/59   71/61 84/57   80/59   76/61   72/63 86/59   82/61   78/63   74/65 90/63   84/64   81/66   77/68
Goodland  3700 82/56  78/58   74/60   70/62 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/64 86/60   82/62   78/64   74/66 88/62   84/64  80/66    76/68 91/65   86/67   83/68   77/71
Gage  2220 85/59  81/61   77/63   73/65 87/61   83/63   79/65   75/67 89/63  85/65    81/67   77/69 91/64   87/66  83/68    79/70 94/68   89/70   86/72   80/74
Wichita  1340 88/62  84/64   80/66   76/68 90/64   86/66   82/68   78/70 92/66  88/68    84/70   80/72 93/67  89/69   85/71    82/73 97/70   92/72   88/74   82/76
Dallas  500 89/64  85/66   82/68   77/70 91/66   87/68   83/70   78/72 93/68   89/70   85/72   81/73 94/69  90/71   86/73    83/75 98/72   93/74   89/76   84/77

    500mb temp = -12C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/TD in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie 7240 69/42   65/45   61/48   59/51 73/46  69/49   65/50   61/53 75/48   71/51   67/53   63/55 78/51   73/53   69/55   65/57 80/53   76/55   72/57    68/59
Cheyenne 6140 74/47   70/49   66/52   62/54 76/49  72/52   68/54   64/56 78/52   74/54   70/55   66/58 80/54   76/56   72/58  68/60  82/56   78/58   76/60    71/62
Akron 4700 78/51   74/53   70/55   66/57 80/53  76/55   72/57   68/59 82/55   78/57   75/59   71/61 84/57   80/59   76/61   72/63 86/59   82/61   78/63   74/65
Goodland 3700 80/54   76/56   72/58   68/60 82/56  78/58   74/60   70/62 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/64 86/60   82/62   78/64   74/66 88/62   84/64   80/66    76/68
Gage 2220 83/57   79/59   75/61  71/63  85/60  81/62   77/64   73/66 87/61   83/63   79/65   75/67 89/63   85/65   81/67   77/69 91/64   87/66   83/68    79/70
Wichita  1340 86/60   82/62  78/64    74/66 88/62  84/64   80/66   76/68 90/64   86/66   82/68   78/70 92/66  88/68   84/70   80/72 93/67   89/69   85/71    82/73
Dallas  500 87/62   83/64  79/66    75/68 89/64  85/66   82/68   77/70 91/66   87/68   83/70   78/72 93/68   89/70   85/72   81/73 94/69   90/71   86/73    83/75

    500mb temp = -16C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/Td in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie  7240 63/37   59/39   56/42   52/45 65/39   61/42   59/45   55/47 68/41   65/43   61/45   57/48 73/47  69/49   65/51   61/53 75/49   71/51   67/53   63/55
Cheyenne  6140 68/42   64/44   60/46   56/48 70/44   66/46   62/48   58/50 72/46   68/48   64/50   60/52 76/50  72/52   68/54   64/56 78/52   74/54   70/55   66/58
Akron  4700 74/47   70/49   66/47   62/49 76/49   72/51   68/53   64/55 77/50   72/51   68/53   64/55 80/53  76/55   72/57   68/59 82/55   78/57   75/59   71/61
Goodland  3700 76/49   72/51   68/53   64/54 78/52   74/54   70/56   66/58 80/53   76/54   72/55   67/58 82/56  78/58   74/60   70/62 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/64
Gage  2220 79/51   75/53  71/55    67/56 82/55   78/57   74/59   70/61 83/56   79/57   75/59   71/62 85/60  81/62   77/64   73/66 87/61   83/63   79/65   75/67
Wichita  1340 82/54  78/56   74/58    70/60 84/58   80/60   76/62   72/64 86/59   82/62   78/63   74/64 88/62  84/64   80/66   76/68 90/64   86/66   82/68   78/70
Dallas  500 83/57  79/59   75/61    71/63 85/60   81/62   77/64   73/66 87/61   83/64   79/65   75/67 89/64  85/66   82/68   77/70 91/66   87/68   83/70   78/72

    500mb temp = -20C
    assume sea level pressure 1005mb
    note T/Td in degrees F
 
-5 -7 -9 -11 -13
Laramie   7240 56/32 59/34   56/37   53/40   50/42 62/37   59/39  56/42   52/45 65/39   61/42   57/45   55/47 68/41   65/43   61/45   57/48
Cheyenne   6140 68/42   64/44  60/46   56/48 70/44   66/46   62/48   58/50 72/46   68/48   64/50   60/52
Akron  4700 69/42   66/44   62/48   58/51 72/45   70/49  66/47   62/49 74/47   70/49   66/51   62/53 77/50   72/51   68/53   64/55
Goodland   3700 76/49  72/51   68/53   64/54 78/52   74/54   70/56   66/58 80/53   76/54   72/55   67/58
Gage   2220 79/51  75/53   71/55   67/56 82/55   78/57   74/59   70/61 83/56   79/57   75/59   71/62
Wichita  1340 81/54  77/56   74/58   70/60 83/57   80/60   76/62   72/64 86/60   82/63   78/63   74/64
Dallas   500 75/51 78/54   76/57   72/59   69/60 82/57  79/59   75/61   71/63 84/59   81/62   77/64   73/66 87/61   83/64   79/65   75/67