Estimating Instability While Storm Chasing
Jonathan
D. Finch
Work in progress--use with caution
I have been calculating instability
while storm chasing for years. While the models do fairly well at predicting
upper-level
temperatures, they tend
to do poorly at low-levels where theta-e changes rapidly in time and space.
While 500mb temps change
very slowly(except with
upper level cold pools), low level temperatures and dewpoints change rapidly
and vary tremendously
on the mesoscale. So, a
good way to stay abreast on the amount of instability in your target area
is to actually measure the low
level temperature and dewpoint,
and then look at morning upper air data, model initializations and 6-12
hr fcsts valid at 18Z to
approximate the 500mb temp,
and then just find the lifted index on a skew-t log P diagram. Yes, I know
its easier just to use
some objective analysis
scheme provided on the internet, but how accurate are these? Certainly
not very accurate in the data
sparse areas of the western
high plains. The models tend to fail miserably on the western high plains
and dramatically underestimate
instability. It is fun to
monitor the cool side of an outflow boundary, warm front, or any area where
moisture is pooling, since
surface observations often
are non-existent. Of course you have to know the elevation. I have provided
elevation maps to help
in this process. Of course,
this is easy for those with GPS. On this page I will provide tables for
500mb temps between -6 and
-20C. Some of the values
listed below are inaccurate and need to be tweaked, so use with caution.
500mb temp = -6C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/TD in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 77/52 73/53 69/56 65/58 | 81/55 78/57 74/59 69/60 | 83/57 79/58 75/60 71/62 | X | X |
Cheyenne 6140 | 80/55 76/57 72/59 69/60 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/63 | 86/60 81/61 77/63 73/65 | X | |
Akron 4700 | 84/58 80/60 77/61 73/63 | 88/61 84/63 80/65 76/67 | 90/63 84/64 81/66 77/68 | ||
Goodland 3700 | 86/61 82/63 79/64 74/66 | 9/64 86/66 82/68 78/70 | 91/65 86/67 83/68 77/71 | ||
Gage 2220 | 89/63 85/65 81/67 77/69 | 93/66 89/68 85/70 81/72 | 94/68 89/70 86/72 80/74 | ||
Wichita 1340 | 93/66 88/68 84/70 81/71 | 95/69 91/71 87/73 83/74 | 97/70 92/72 88/74 82/76 | ||
Dallas 500 | 94/68 89/70 85/72 81/73 | 96/71 92/72 88/74 84/76 | 98/72 93/74 89/76 84/77 |
500mb temp = -8C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/TD in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 75/49 71/51 67/54 63/55 | 77/52 73/53 69/56 65/58 | 81/55 78/57 74/59 71/62 | 83/57 79/58 75/60 71/62 | X |
Cheyenne 6140 | 78/53 74/54 70/56 66/58 | 80/55 76/57 72/59 69/60 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/63 | 86/60 81/61 77/63 73/65 | |
Akron 4700 | 82/56 78/57 75/59 70/61 | 84/58 80/60 77/61 73/63 | 88/61 84/63 80/65 76/67 | 90/63 84/64 81/66 77/68 | |
Goodland 3700 | 84/59 80/60 76/62 72/64 | 86/61 82/63 79/64 74/66 | 89/64 86/66 82/68 78/70 | 91/65 86/67 83/68 77/71 | |
Gage 2220 | 87/61 83/63 79/65 75/67 | 89/63 85/65 81/67 77/69 | 93/66 89/68 85/70 81/72 | 94/68 89/70 86/72 80/74 | |
Wichita 1340 | 91/64 86/66 82/68 78/69 | 93/66 88/68 84/70 80/71 | 95/69 91/71 87/73 83/74 | 97/70 92/72 88/74 82/76 | |
Dallas 500 | 92/66 87/68 83/70 78/72 | 94/68 89/70 85/72 81/73 | 96/71 92/72 88/74 84/76 | 98/72 93/74 89/76 84/77 |
500mb temp = -10C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/TD in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 73/46 69/49 65/50 61/53 | 75/48 71/51 67/53 63/55 | 78/51 73/53 69/55 65/57 | 80/53 76/55 72/57 68/59 | 83/57 79/58 75/60 71/62 |
Cheyenne 6140 | 76/49 72/52 68/54 64/56 | 78/52 74/54 70/56 66/58 | 80/54 76/56 72/58 68/60 | 82/56 78/58 74/60 71/62 | 86/60 81/61 77/63 73/65 |
Akron 4700 | 80/53 76/55 72/57 68/59 | 82/55 78/57 75/59 71/61 | 84/57 80/59 76/61 72/63 | 86/59 82/61 78/63 74/65 | 90/63 84/64 81/66 77/68 |
Goodland 3700 | 82/56 78/58 74/60 70/62 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/64 | 86/60 82/62 78/64 74/66 | 88/62 84/64 80/66 76/68 | 91/65 86/67 83/68 77/71 |
Gage 2220 | 85/59 81/61 77/63 73/65 | 87/61 83/63 79/65 75/67 | 89/63 85/65 81/67 77/69 | 91/64 87/66 83/68 79/70 | 94/68 89/70 86/72 80/74 |
Wichita 1340 | 88/62 84/64 80/66 76/68 | 90/64 86/66 82/68 78/70 | 92/66 88/68 84/70 80/72 | 93/67 89/69 85/71 82/73 | 97/70 92/72 88/74 82/76 |
Dallas 500 | 89/64 85/66 82/68 77/70 | 91/66 87/68 83/70 78/72 | 93/68 89/70 85/72 81/73 | 94/69 90/71 86/73 83/75 | 98/72 93/74 89/76 84/77 |
500mb temp = -12C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/TD in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 69/42 65/45 61/48 59/51 | 73/46 69/49 65/50 61/53 | 75/48 71/51 67/53 63/55 | 78/51 73/53 69/55 65/57 | 80/53 76/55 72/57 68/59 |
Cheyenne 6140 | 74/47 70/49 66/52 62/54 | 76/49 72/52 68/54 64/56 | 78/52 74/54 70/55 66/58 | 80/54 76/56 72/58 68/60 | 82/56 78/58 76/60 71/62 |
Akron 4700 | 78/51 74/53 70/55 66/57 | 80/53 76/55 72/57 68/59 | 82/55 78/57 75/59 71/61 | 84/57 80/59 76/61 72/63 | 86/59 82/61 78/63 74/65 |
Goodland 3700 | 80/54 76/56 72/58 68/60 | 82/56 78/58 74/60 70/62 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/64 | 86/60 82/62 78/64 74/66 | 88/62 84/64 80/66 76/68 |
Gage 2220 | 83/57 79/59 75/61 71/63 | 85/60 81/62 77/64 73/66 | 87/61 83/63 79/65 75/67 | 89/63 85/65 81/67 77/69 | 91/64 87/66 83/68 79/70 |
Wichita 1340 | 86/60 82/62 78/64 74/66 | 88/62 84/64 80/66 76/68 | 90/64 86/66 82/68 78/70 | 92/66 88/68 84/70 80/72 | 93/67 89/69 85/71 82/73 |
Dallas 500 | 87/62 83/64 79/66 75/68 | 89/64 85/66 82/68 77/70 | 91/66 87/68 83/70 78/72 | 93/68 89/70 85/72 81/73 | 94/69 90/71 86/73 83/75 |
500mb temp = -16C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/Td in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 63/37 59/39 56/42 52/45 | 65/39 61/42 59/45 55/47 | 68/41 65/43 61/45 57/48 | 73/47 69/49 65/51 61/53 | 75/49 71/51 67/53 63/55 |
Cheyenne 6140 | 68/42 64/44 60/46 56/48 | 70/44 66/46 62/48 58/50 | 72/46 68/48 64/50 60/52 | 76/50 72/52 68/54 64/56 | 78/52 74/54 70/55 66/58 |
Akron 4700 | 74/47 70/49 66/47 62/49 | 76/49 72/51 68/53 64/55 | 77/50 72/51 68/53 64/55 | 80/53 76/55 72/57 68/59 | 82/55 78/57 75/59 71/61 |
Goodland 3700 | 76/49 72/51 68/53 64/54 | 78/52 74/54 70/56 66/58 | 80/53 76/54 72/55 67/58 | 82/56 78/58 74/60 70/62 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/64 |
Gage 2220 | 79/51 75/53 71/55 67/56 | 82/55 78/57 74/59 70/61 | 83/56 79/57 75/59 71/62 | 85/60 81/62 77/64 73/66 | 87/61 83/63 79/65 75/67 |
Wichita 1340 | 82/54 78/56 74/58 70/60 | 84/58 80/60 76/62 72/64 | 86/59 82/62 78/63 74/64 | 88/62 84/64 80/66 76/68 | 90/64 86/66 82/68 78/70 |
Dallas 500 | 83/57 79/59 75/61 71/63 | 85/60 81/62 77/64 73/66 | 87/61 83/64 79/65 75/67 | 89/64 85/66 82/68 77/70 | 91/66 87/68 83/70 78/72 |
500mb temp = -20C
assume sea level pressure
1005mb
note T/Td in degrees F
-5 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -13 | |
Laramie 7240 | 56/32 | 59/34 56/37 53/40 50/42 | 62/37 59/39 56/42 52/45 | 65/39 61/42 57/45 55/47 | 68/41 65/43 61/45 57/48 |
Cheyenne 6140 | 68/42 64/44 60/46 56/48 | 70/44 66/46 62/48 58/50 | 72/46 68/48 64/50 60/52 | ||
Akron 4700 | 69/42 66/44 62/48 58/51 | 72/45 70/49 66/47 62/49 | 74/47 70/49 66/51 62/53 | 77/50 72/51 68/53 64/55 | |
Goodland 3700 | 76/49 72/51 68/53 64/54 | 78/52 74/54 70/56 66/58 | 80/53 76/54 72/55 67/58 | ||
Gage 2220 | 79/51 75/53 71/55 67/56 | 82/55 78/57 74/59 70/61 | 83/56 79/57 75/59 71/62 | ||
Wichita 1340 | 81/54 77/56 74/58 70/60 | 83/57 80/60 76/62 72/64 | 86/60 82/63 78/63 74/64 | ||
Dallas 500 | 75/51 | 78/54 76/57 72/59 69/60 | 82/57 79/59 75/61 71/63 | 84/59 81/62 77/64 73/66 | 87/61 83/64 79/65 75/67 |