The
23 UTC surface chart still indicated a strong moisture influx into eastern Wyoming. The
2315 and
2345 UTC visible
shots
shows continued storm development over southwest Converse county. The storm that initiated near the Albany
Carbon county line appeared to be over the Laramie
mountains by 2315 UTC and on the lee side of the Laramie
mountains by 2345 UTC. By 0015 UTC, when the first
tornado was in progress after initially touching down at the Red
Canyon Ranch, the visible shot shows 2 overshooting
tops over Converse county, one to the northeast and one further
southwest. There was also development on the
flank. This
cluster of storms moved through the Douglas area and produced
a damaging tornado at 0104 UTC 3 miles
northeast of Douglas.
Other smaller storm cells were also developing back
along the surface
boundary in Carbon and northwest Albany counties. Of
particular note was a cell that initiated over
west central Albany county at 0015 UTC. This
cell moved northeast into the Douglas
area around 0145 UTC. The storms
that caused the tornadoes at Red Canyon Ranch
and near Douglas moved
east-northeast and caused high-end severe
weather in Niobrara county.
Again, it is difficult to assess whether one particular
cell was responsible for all the tornadic
activity or not due to the
multiple storms.
Using the surface observation at Laramie at 23 UTC
along with the 00 UTC raobs,
the surface based
CAPE near the
front in southeast Wyoming was around
2100 j/kg. Surface
observations from Douglas indicate much lower theta-e values
compared
to Laramie. The surface
based CAPE using the observations from Douglas would be only 500 j/kg.
I still think
that the dewpoint values at Douglas were off by 5 to
12F. It just does
not make sense
for the dewpoint to be so low at
Douglas despite hours and hours of moisture
return up the Platte River valley. Experience indicates that in such a surface
pattern,
dewpoints at Douglas are not too far below the values at
Scottsbluff. The vertical wind shear was very strong, with
southeast low level winds and 60kt 400mb winds from
the southeast.
This yields 0-6 km shear values over 60kts.
The series of surface maps from
22 to
23 to
00 to
01
to
02 UTC indicated that surface dewpoints were likely around 58F
in the Lance Creek area by 0230 UTC. The elevation
of Lance Creek is about 4500ft. The surface temperature was
probably about 66F. Plugging these values into
the 00 UTC
Rapid City
sounding yields 2900 j/kg surface based CAPE.
Keep in mind that the starting pressure for the
modified Rapid City sounding was adjusted upward to 853 mb.
The GOES
west and GOES
east visible loops over Wyoming are impressive.
From the
visible loop, one can see explosive nature
of the storms in the Texas panhandle between 2100 and 2300 UTC.
Surface based CAPE at Amarillo was estimated using
21 to 00 UTC surface observations and the 00 UTC Amarillo
sounding. The
surface based CAPE was 3000 j/kg. The sounding apparently went into a
storm anvil around 400mb.
The 00
UTC upper air charts showed a strong jet streak by early June standards
over Utah, with central and northeast
northeast Wyoming in the left front quadrant. This helps explain
why storms were more widespread in this region. Above
the Rockies boundary layer, the mid to
high level flow was quite strong across central and northeast Wyoming.
The
500mb winds were probably weaker because of frictional effects of the deep Rockies boundary layer. This is often the
case in
the summer. If course, the 500mb level is really not that high at
places like Rawlins, Laramie, Rock Springs,
Eagle, Leadville and the mountains of central
Colorado. When a strong trough is approaching the Rockies in
summer,
the
400mb winds are often quite a bit stronger than the 500mb winds. The
250 and
300mb charts show central and
northeast Wyoming in the left front quadrant of an
impressive jet streak. The
700mb chart showed a strong baroclinic
zone between Salt Lake City and southwest Wyoming.
The 00 UTC
850mb chart indicated rich moisture in place from
west
Texas into western Nebraska. The
12 and 00 UTC upper air charts suggest a branch of the jet across the southern
plains. Unfortunately the 00 UTC sounding from
Amarillo was contaminated above 400mb so the
300mb wind of
75 kts is suspect. Was the actual windspeed higher
than 75 kts? There is no way of knowing.